Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, High
This dataset tracks longer run fomc summary of economic projections for the civilian unemployment rate, range, high over time.
Latest Value
4.50
Year-over-Year Change
4.65%
Date Range
2/18/2009 - 6/18/2025
Summary
The Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for Unemployment Rate Range represents the highest potential unemployment estimate. This metric provides an upper boundary for long-term labor market expectations.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic projection captures the highest potential unemployment rate in the Federal Open Market Committee's long-term forecast. It helps stakeholders understand potential economic scenarios.
Methodology
Derived from FOMC member surveys and comprehensive economic analysis.
Historical Context
Utilized by policymakers to prepare for potential economic downturns.
Key Facts
- Represents maximum potential unemployment
- Part of comprehensive FOMC economic assessment
- Helps prepare for potential economic challenges
FAQs
Q: What does the UNRATERHLR series indicate?
A: It shows the highest potential unemployment rate in the FOMC's long-term economic projections. Represents a worst-case scenario estimate.
Q: How is this different from the central tendency projection?
A: This series represents the upper range of potential unemployment, while central tendency shows the midpoint estimate.
Q: Why track the high-range unemployment projection?
A: It helps policymakers and businesses prepare for potential economic challenges and develop contingency strategies.
Q: How reliable are these high-range projections?
A: These are expert estimates based on current economic conditions and potential risks. They provide strategic insights, not definitive predictions.
Q: Who uses these high-range unemployment projections?
A: Policymakers, economists, investors, and business leaders use these projections for strategic planning and risk assessment.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, High (UNRATERHLR), retrieved from FRED.