Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
This dataset tracks sahm rule recession indicator over time.
Latest Value
0.10
Year-over-Year Change
-81.13%
Date Range
3/1/1949 - 7/1/2025
Summary
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator tracks changes in the U.S. unemployment rate to signal the onset of recessions, providing an early warning system for policymakers.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The Sahm Rule is an economic indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm that uses the change in the national unemployment rate to signal the start of a recession. It is designed to provide a reliable, real-time recession warning to help guide policy responses.
Methodology
The indicator is calculated based on the 3-month average of the national unemployment rate.
Historical Context
The Sahm Rule is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers to assess the health of the U.S. economy.
Key Facts
- The Sahm Rule signals a recession when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.
- Recessions identified by the Sahm Rule have matched the official NBER recession dates since 1980.
- The Sahm Rule can provide an early warning of a recession up to a year before it is officially declared.
FAQs
Q: What does the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator measure?
A: The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator tracks changes in the U.S. unemployment rate to signal the onset of recessions, providing an early warning system for policymakers.
Q: Why is the Sahm Rule relevant for users or analysts?
A: The Sahm Rule is a reliable, real-time recession indicator that helps guide economic policy responses by signaling the start of a downturn.
Q: How is the Sahm Rule data collected or calculated?
A: The indicator is calculated based on the 3-month average of the national unemployment rate.
Q: How is the Sahm Rule used in economic policy?
A: The Sahm Rule is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and other policymakers to assess the health of the U.S. economy and inform policy decisions.
Q: Are there any update delays or limitations with the Sahm Rule?
A: The Sahm Rule can provide an early warning of a recession up to a year before it is officially declared, but it may not capture all economic downturns.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT), retrieved from FRED.