Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
This dataset tracks smoothed u.s. recession probabilities over time.
Latest Value
0.60
Year-over-Year Change
N/A%
Date Range
6/1/1967 - 6/1/2025
Summary
The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is an economic indicator that estimates the likelihood of the U.S. economy being in a recession. It is a valuable tool for economists and policymakers to assess economic conditions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This indicator, calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, uses multiple economic variables to estimate the probability that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession. It provides a forward-looking assessment of the state of the business cycle, which is crucial for informed decision-making.
Methodology
The data is calculated using a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model that incorporates various macroeconomic indicators.
Historical Context
The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is widely used by analysts, investors, and policymakers to gauge the overall health of the economy and inform economic policy decisions.
Key Facts
- The indicator ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 1 indicating a higher probability of recession.
- It is updated monthly and published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- The indicator has historically signaled the onset of recessions several months in advance.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities indicator estimates the likelihood that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession based on various macroeconomic variables.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This indicator provides a forward-looking assessment of the business cycle, which is crucial for economic decision-making by policymakers, investors, and analysts.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The data is calculated using a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model that incorporates multiple macroeconomic indicators.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is widely used by policymakers, such as the Federal Reserve, to gauge the overall health of the economy and inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The indicator is updated monthly with a relatively short publication delay, providing timely information on the state of the business cycle.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N), retrieved from FRED.