LMN 12 Month Ahead Real Uncertainty
This dataset tracks lmn 12 month ahead real uncertainty over time.
Latest Value
1.06
Year-over-Year Change
19.26%
Date Range
7/1/1960 - 4/1/2025
Summary
The 'LMN 12 Month Ahead Real Uncertainty' series measures the degree of uncertainty about future economic conditions as perceived by professional forecasters. This metric is a key indicator of business and consumer confidence.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This trend represents the level of uncertainty expressed by economic forecasters about real activity over the next 12 months. It is based on the spread of individual forecasters' point predictions, capturing the disagreement and lack of confidence in the economic outlook.
Methodology
The data is calculated from survey responses of professional forecasters.
Historical Context
Policymakers closely monitor this uncertainty indicator to assess the risks and volatility in the economic environment.
Key Facts
- The series ranges from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating greater uncertainty.
- Uncertainty tends to rise during recessions and economic downturns.
- Policymakers use this metric to gauge the risks facing the economy.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The 'LMN 12 Month Ahead Real Uncertainty' series measures the degree of disagreement and lack of confidence among professional economic forecasters about future real economic conditions over the next 12 months.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This uncertainty indicator provides valuable insight into the perceived risks and volatility in the economic outlook, which is crucial information for policymakers, businesses, and investors.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The data is calculated from survey responses of professional economic forecasters.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Policymakers closely monitor this uncertainty indicator to assess the risks and volatility in the economic environment, which informs their decisions and policy actions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The data is published on a regular schedule, but there may be some delays in the availability of the most recent observations.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, LMN 12 Month Ahead Real Uncertainty (LMNUR12M), retrieved from FRED.