JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty
This dataset tracks jln 3-month ahead macroeconomic uncertainty over time.
Latest Value
0.94
Year-over-Year Change
23.68%
Date Range
7/1/1960 - 4/1/2025
Summary
The JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty index measures the perceived uncertainty about future economic conditions based on forecasts from professional economists. It is a key indicator of near-term economic risks.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty index tracks the volatility and unpredictability of major macroeconomic variables as forecasted by professional forecasters. It serves as an important gauge of economic outlook and risk for policymakers and investors.
Methodology
The index is calculated based on the disagreement among professional forecasts for key economic indicators.
Historical Context
This uncertainty metric informs policy decisions and market assessments of near-term economic prospects.
Key Facts
- The index ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater perceived uncertainty.
- It is updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Elevated uncertainty has historically coincided with periods of economic volatility and policy challenges.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty index tracks the degree of unpredictability in near-term economic forecasts made by professional analysts.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: The index provides a real-time gauge of economic risks and uncertainty, which is crucial information for policymakers, investors, and other economic decision-makers.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The index is derived from the disagreement among professional economic forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Elevated uncertainty levels can signal the need for more accommodative monetary or fiscal policies to stabilize the economy.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The index is updated monthly with a short lag, providing timely information on evolving economic conditions.
Related News
US Treasury Yields Increase Before Key Economic Data Release
How Treasury Yields Signal Market Expectations Ahead of Crucial Economic Data Release Treasury yields, often referred to as a barometer for the U.S. economy, signal market participants' expectations about future economic conditions. As we approach the release of critical GDP data and unemployment claims, Treasury yields rise, reflecting the collective anticipation about potential shifts in the economic landscape. These yields are central to shaping expectations about Federal Reserve interest ra
US Housing Giant Hopes Fed Policies Boost Sagging Profits
Revitalizing S&P 500 Housing with Federal Reserve Policies The primary keyword, "Treasury Yield," has become an increasingly critical focus within the realm of the S&P 500 housing market. Current fluctuations in bond rates, particularly the 10-year bond rate, are causing waves in the already volatile US housing market. This situation is marked by a profit decline experienced by major housing giants, as economic uncertainty steers investor confidence. The Federal Reserve's policies and interest
US Treasury yields mixed before expected Federal Reserve rate cut
Understanding Mixed Treasury Yields Ahead of the Anticipated Fed Rate Cut Navigating the complex world of Treasury yields can seem like unraveling a mystery. In the unpredictable arena of mixed yields, understanding their shifts becomes especially crucial. Treasury yields offer a glimpse into Wall Street's trust in the economic outlook. They're shaped by various factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes and the broader economic landscape. Right now, investors are watching clo
U.S. Stock Futures Stagnant Despite Positive Jobless Claims and GDP
Why US Stock Futures Remain Stagnant Despite Positive Economic Indicators The current investment landscape is puzzling for many as US stock futures struggle to show a definite trend despite favorable economic signals. These signals, such as jobless claims and Q2 GDP figures, suggest a healthy economy. Given the roles of the stock market and the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate hikes, it is surprising to witness this stagnation. Inflation trends and the Fed's signals about future policies pla
U.S. Home Sales Decline In August Due To High Prices
August 2023 U.S. Home Sales Decline Amid Rising Mortgage Rates and High Prices In August 2023, U.S. home sales experienced a notable decline, highlighting a distressing trend in the housing market. Homeownership is more costly these days. High home prices and soaring 30 year mortgage rates, combined with limited housing inventory, pose significant challenges for potential buyers and cast a shadow on economic recovery efforts. Many potential homebuyers find themselves increasingly priced out of
U.S. jobless claims decline to lowest level since mid-July
U.S. Jobless Claims Drop: A Positive Sign for Economic Growth The U.S. economy is signaling a positive turn as the initial jobless claims have dropped to their lowest level since mid-July, suggesting a more resilient labor market. This decline in jobless claims is not just a number; it reflects crucial dynamics in the U.S. economy and employment landscape. As people file fewer claims for unemployment benefits, it suggests a strengthening employment market and a recovering economy. Also, the cur
Related Trends
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
CPIAUCNS
Capacity Utilization: Total Index
TCU
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks
TOTCI
Share of Foreign Born in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood A
RLMSHFBHOLCNA
Home Ownership Rate in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood C
RLMSHHORHOLCNC
Share of Foreign Born in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood C
RLMSHFBHOLCNC
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty (JLNUM3M), retrieved from FRED.