JLN 1-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty
This dataset tracks jln 1-month ahead macroeconomic uncertainty over time.
Latest Value
0.78
Year-over-Year Change
25.62%
Date Range
7/1/1960 - 4/1/2025
Summary
The JLN 1-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty index measures uncertainty about future economic conditions one month ahead, based on newspaper articles.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This index, developed by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, quantifies uncertainty about near-term macroeconomic outcomes by analyzing the frequency of relevant keywords in major U.S. news sources. It provides a real-time signal of economic uncertainty for policymakers and analysts.
Methodology
The data is calculated from automated analysis of millions of news articles.
Historical Context
The index helps assess current and expected economic conditions.
Key Facts
- The index ranges from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating greater uncertainty.
- It provides an earlier signal of economic uncertainty compared to many other indicators.
- The index has been shown to help predict future economic downturns.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The JLN 1-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty index measures near-term uncertainty about future economic conditions based on a text analysis of news coverage.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: The index provides a real-time signal of economic uncertainty that can help policymakers and market participants assess current and expected economic conditions.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The data is calculated from an automated analysis of millions of news articles.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The index is used by economists and policymakers to help understand and respond to changing economic conditions and uncertainty.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The index is updated monthly with a short lag, providing timely insights into economic uncertainty.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, JLN 1-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty (JLNUM1M), retrieved from FRED.