GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
This dataset tracks gdp-based recession indicator index over time.
Latest Value
11.70
Year-over-Year Change
-68.72%
Date Range
10/1/1967 - 1/1/2025
Summary
The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index tracks the probability of the U.S. economy being in a recession based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. It provides an important signal for policymakers and analysts monitoring economic conditions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index is a statistical model that estimates the likelihood of the U.S. economy being in a recession using quarterly GDP data. It serves as a real-time recession warning signal for economists and policymakers.
Methodology
This index is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using a probit model that analyzes GDP growth trends.
Historical Context
The index is a key input for Federal Reserve and government policymakers when assessing the health of the economy and considering appropriate policy responses.
Key Facts
- The index ranges from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating a higher likelihood of recession.
- The index reached a peak of 91.2% during the Great Recession in 2009.
- The index has remained below 10% since the end of the 2020 COVID-19 recession.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index measures the probability of the U.S. economy being in a recession based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This index provides an important signal for policymakers and analysts monitoring the state of the economy, as it offers a real-time assessment of recession risk.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The index is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using a probit model that analyzes GDP growth trends.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index is a key input for Federal Reserve and government policymakers when assessing the health of the economy and considering appropriate policy responses.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The index is updated quarterly, in line with the release of GDP data, and may be subject to revisions as new information becomes available.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX), retrieved from FRED.