Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High
FEDTARCTHLR • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
3.60
Year-over-Year Change
44.00%
Date Range
6/17/2015 - 6/18/2025
Summary
This economic indicator represents the highest projected Federal Funds Rate in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) longer-run economic projections. It provides insight into potential maximum monetary policy expectations from top Federal Reserve officials.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The trend captures the upper bound of the central tendency for the Fed Funds Rate in long-term economic forecasts. Economists use this projection to understand potential future monetary policy constraints and maximum interest rate scenarios.
Methodology
Data is collected through quarterly surveys of FOMC members who provide confidential projections about potential future interest rate trajectories.
Historical Context
This metric is critically used by policymakers, investors, and financial analysts to anticipate potential monetary policy constraints and economic growth expectations.
Key Facts
- Represents the highest potential long-term interest rate projection
- Updated quarterly by FOMC members
- Provides insight into maximum expected monetary policy scenarios
FAQs
Q: What does the high central tendency indicate?
A: It represents the highest potential Federal Funds Rate projection among FOMC members for the longer-term economic outlook.
Q: How often is this projection updated?
A: The projection is typically updated quarterly during FOMC economic projection meetings.
Q: Why is this projection important for investors?
A: It helps investors understand potential maximum interest rate scenarios and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
Q: How does this relate to current monetary policy?
A: The projection provides a forward-looking view of potential monetary policy constraints and economic expectations.
Q: What are the limitations of this projection?
A: Projections are speculative and can change based on evolving economic conditions and unexpected global events.
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Related Trends
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EFFRVOL
Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High
FEDTARRHLR
Overnight Bank Funding Rate
OBFR
Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint
FEDTARRMLR
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median
FEDTARMD
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High
FEDTARCTH
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High [FEDTARCTHLR], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025