FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median
This dataset tracks fomc summary of economic projections for the fed funds rate, median over time.
Latest Value
3.40
Year-over-Year Change
-12.82%
Date Range
1/1/2025 - 1/1/2027
Summary
The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate represents the Federal Reserve's median projection for future interest rates. This metric provides critical insight into monetary policy expectations and potential economic trajectory.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This projection reflects the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus view on future federal funds rate levels across multiple economic scenarios. Economists and market participants closely analyze these projections to understand potential monetary policy shifts and economic conditions.
Methodology
The data is compiled through a confidential survey of FOMC members, who provide their individual projections based on current economic analysis and forward-looking indicators.
Historical Context
This trend is used extensively by policymakers, investors, and financial analysts to anticipate potential interest rate changes and assess the Federal Reserve's economic outlook.
Key Facts
- Represents median FOMC member expectations for future interest rates
- Updated quarterly as part of the Summary of Economic Projections
- Crucial indicator for understanding potential monetary policy direction
FAQs
Q: How often are these projections updated?
A: The FOMC updates these projections quarterly during their economic outlook meetings. The projections are typically released alongside FOMC meeting minutes.
Q: What factors influence these interest rate projections?
A: Projections are influenced by economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, and global economic conditions. FOMC members assess multiple economic models and data points.
Q: How accurate are these projections historically?
A: While projections provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed predictions. Actual rates can differ based on unexpected economic developments or changing global conditions.
Q: Why do investors care about these projections?
A: Investors use these projections to make informed decisions about bond investments, stock allocations, and overall portfolio strategy. The projections offer insights into potential future economic conditions.
Q: Are these projections binding?
A: These projections are not binding commitments but represent the current consensus view of FOMC members. Actual policy decisions can change based on evolving economic circumstances.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median [FEDTARMD], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025