Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median
This dataset tracks longer run fomc summary of economic projections for the fed funds rate, median over time.
Latest Value
3.00
Year-over-Year Change
20.00%
Date Range
1/25/2012 - 6/18/2025
Summary
The Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate represents the Federal Reserve's median projection for long-term interest rates. This metric provides critical insight into policymakers' expectations for future monetary policy and economic conditions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This projection reflects the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus view on the neutral interest rate over an extended time horizon. Economists and market participants closely analyze this metric to understand potential future monetary policy trajectories and underlying economic assumptions.
Methodology
The data is collected through a confidential survey of FOMC members who provide their individual projections for the federal funds rate in the longer run.
Historical Context
This projection is used by investors, policymakers, and economic analysts to gauge potential future monetary policy stance and long-term economic expectations.
Key Facts
- Represents median FOMC members' long-term interest rate expectations
- Updated quarterly as part of the Summary of Economic Projections
- Crucial indicator for understanding potential future monetary policy direction
FAQs
Q: What does the FEDTARMDLR metric represent?
A: It represents the Federal Reserve's median projection for the long-term federal funds rate, indicating the expected neutral interest rate over an extended period.
Q: How often is this projection updated?
A: The projection is typically updated quarterly during the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections.
Q: Why do investors care about this metric?
A: Investors use this projection to understand potential future monetary policy direction and assess long-term economic expectations.
Q: How does this metric impact economic decision-making?
A: It provides guidance for businesses, investors, and policymakers about potential long-term interest rate environments and economic conditions.
Q: What are the limitations of this projection?
A: The projection is based on individual FOMC members' views and can change based on evolving economic conditions and new information.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median [FEDTARMDLR], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025