FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint
FEDTARCTM • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
3.25
Year-over-Year Change
-21.69%
Date Range
1/1/2025 - 1/1/2027
Summary
The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate represents the Federal Reserve's central tendency projection for future interest rates. This metric provides critical insight into monetary policy expectations and potential economic trajectory.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This projection reflects the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus view on future federal funds rate levels across different economic scenarios. Economists and market participants closely analyze these projections to understand potential monetary policy shifts and economic outlook.
Methodology
The data is collected through a confidential survey of FOMC members, who provide their individual projections based on current economic conditions and forward-looking analysis.
Historical Context
These projections are used by policymakers, investors, and financial analysts to anticipate potential interest rate changes and assess the Federal Reserve's economic outlook.
Key Facts
- Represents the central tendency of FOMC members' interest rate expectations
- Updated quarterly as part of the Federal Reserve's economic projections
- Provides insight into potential future monetary policy direction
FAQs
Q: What does the central tendency mean in these projections?
A: The central tendency represents the range of projections after removing the three highest and three lowest individual forecasts from FOMC members.
Q: How often are these projections updated?
A: These projections are typically updated quarterly during FOMC meetings, providing the most current economic outlook.
Q: How do investors use these projections?
A: Investors analyze these projections to anticipate potential interest rate changes and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
Q: What factors influence these projections?
A: Factors include current economic conditions, inflation expectations, employment data, and global economic trends.
Q: Are these projections guaranteed to occur?
A: These are forecasts and can change based on evolving economic conditions, and should not be considered definitive predictions.
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Related Trends
90-Day Average SOFR
SOFR90DAYAVG
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 99th Percentile
OBFR99
Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High
FEDTARRHLR
Overnight Bank Funding Volume
OBFRVOL
Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 25th Percentile
SOFR25
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint [FEDTARCTM], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025