Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint
FEDTARCTMLR • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
3.10
Year-over-Year Change
29.17%
Date Range
6/17/2015 - 6/18/2025
Summary
The Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate represents the Federal Reserve's long-term outlook for interest rates. This projection provides critical insight into monetary policy expectations and potential future economic conditions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This trend reflects the Federal Open Market Committee's central tendency projection for the federal funds rate in the longer run, indicating the expected neutral interest rate level. Economists and market participants closely analyze this metric to understand potential future monetary policy trajectories and economic equilibrium.
Methodology
The data is collected through a survey of FOMC members who provide their individual projections, which are then aggregated to create a central tendency range.
Historical Context
This projection is used by policymakers, investors, and economic analysts to inform long-term economic planning and investment strategies.
Key Facts
- Represents the FOMC's long-term neutral interest rate expectation
- Provides insight into potential future monetary policy direction
- Updated periodically to reflect changing economic conditions
FAQs
Q: What does the longer run Fed Funds Rate projection indicate?
A: It represents the Federal Reserve's expected neutral interest rate level in the long term, suggesting where rates might stabilize under normal economic conditions.
Q: How often is this projection updated?
A: The FOMC typically updates these projections quarterly during their Summary of Economic Projections.
Q: Why do investors care about this projection?
A: It provides crucial insights into potential future monetary policy and helps investors make long-term financial and investment decisions.
Q: How is the central tendency calculated?
A: The central tendency is calculated by removing the three highest and three lowest projections from the FOMC members' individual forecasts.
Q: What are the limitations of this projection?
A: The projection is based on individual FOMC members' expectations and can change significantly with evolving economic conditions.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint [FEDTARCTMLR], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025