6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T6MFF • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
-0.17
Year-over-Year Change
466.67%
Date Range
10/6/2021 - 8/5/2025
Summary
The 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate is a key spread indicator that measures the difference between short-term treasury yields and the federal funds rate. This metric provides insights into market expectations of future economic conditions and potential monetary policy shifts.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the yield differential between 6-month Treasury securities and the current federal funds rate, which economists use to assess market sentiment and potential economic stress. The spread can signal potential recessionary signals or changes in monetary policy expectations.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the federal funds rate from the 6-month Treasury constant maturity rate, typically sourced from daily Federal Reserve statistical releases.
Historical Context
Policymakers and investors use this spread as a predictive tool for assessing potential economic downturns and understanding market liquidity conditions.
Key Facts
- A negative spread can indicate potential economic recession risks
- The metric helps investors and policymakers understand market expectations
- Changes in this spread can signal shifts in monetary policy sentiment
FAQs
Q: What does a negative spread indicate?
A: A negative spread suggests market expectations of potential economic slowdown or potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The data is typically updated daily by the Federal Reserve, reflecting current market conditions and treasury yields.
Q: Why do investors track this spread?
A: Investors use this spread as a predictive tool to assess potential economic trends and make informed investment decisions.
Q: How does this relate to monetary policy?
A: The spread provides insights into market expectations about future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and overall economic conditions.
Q: What are the limitations of this indicator?
A: While informative, the spread should not be used in isolation and is most effective when analyzed alongside other economic indicators.
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Related Trends
3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T3MFF
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T10YIE
7-year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T7YIEM
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
T10Y3M
3-Month Commercial Paper Minus Federal Funds Rate
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5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T5YFF
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate [T6MFF], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025