6-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate
TB6SMFFM • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
-0.20
Year-over-Year Change
-37.50%
Date Range
12/1/1958 - 7/1/2025
Summary
The 6-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate measures the spread between short-term government debt yields and the central bank's benchmark interest rate. This metric provides insights into market expectations about future economic conditions and potential monetary policy shifts.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the difference between the 6-month Treasury bill rate and the Federal Funds Rate, which economists use to assess market sentiment and potential economic stress. The spread can signal potential recessionary signals or market uncertainty when it becomes negative or volatile.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the current Federal Funds Rate from the 6-month Treasury bill rate, typically reported on a percentage basis.
Historical Context
Policymakers and investors use this spread as a key indicator of financial market conditions and potential economic turning points.
Key Facts
- A negative spread can indicate potential economic recession
- The metric helps predict potential changes in monetary policy
- Investors use this spread to assess market risk and economic expectations
FAQs
Q: What does a negative spread indicate?
A: A negative spread suggests market expectations of potential economic slowdown or anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The data is typically updated daily, reflecting current market conditions and Treasury bill rates.
Q: Why do economists track this spread?
A: The spread provides insights into market expectations about future economic conditions and potential monetary policy changes.
Q: How does this differ from other interest rate spreads?
A: Unlike other spreads, this specifically compares short-term Treasury bills to the Federal Funds Rate, offering a direct view of near-term market expectations.
Q: What are the limitations of this indicator?
A: While informative, the spread should not be used in isolation and is most valuable when analyzed alongside other economic indicators.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 6-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate [TB6SMFFM], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025