10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
T10Y2Y • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
0.53
Year-over-Year Change
0.00%
Date Range
10/7/2021 - 8/6/2025
Summary
The T10Y2Y measures the difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, serving as a key indicator of market expectations about future economic conditions. This spread is widely considered a reliable predictor of potential economic recessions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the yield curve spread, which reflects investor sentiment about future economic growth and potential monetary policy shifts. Economists and investors closely monitor this metric as a signal of potential economic turning points and market expectations.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the 2-year Treasury constant maturity rate from the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate, typically reported on a daily basis.
Historical Context
Central banks and financial institutions use this spread as a critical tool for assessing economic health, potential recessionary risks, and monetary policy planning.
Key Facts
- A negative spread often signals an increased likelihood of economic recession
- The metric is closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers
- Historical data shows this spread has preceded several major economic downturns
FAQs
Q: What does a negative T10Y2Y spread mean?
A: A negative spread indicates that short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term yields, which is often interpreted as a potential sign of impending economic recession.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The T10Y2Y data is typically updated daily by the Federal Reserve, reflecting current market conditions and Treasury yields.
Q: Why do investors care about this spread?
A: Investors use this spread as a predictive tool for economic conditions, helping them make informed decisions about investment strategies and portfolio allocation.
Q: Can this indicator predict exact recession timing?
A: While the T10Y2Y is a valuable predictor, it cannot precisely forecast the exact timing of a recession, but rather signals increased recession probability.
Q: What are the limitations of this economic indicator?
A: The T10Y2Y is not infallible and should be considered alongside other economic indicators for a comprehensive analysis of economic conditions.
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Related Trends
1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T1YFF
3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T3MFF
5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T5YFF
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
AAA10Y
30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T30YIEM
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Minus Federal Funds Rate
AAAFF
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025