10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
T10Y3M • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
-0.10
Year-over-Year Change
233.33%
Date Range
10/7/2021 - 8/6/2025
Summary
The T10Y3M measures the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury constant maturity rates, which is a key indicator of economic expectations and potential recession risk. This spread reflects market sentiment about future economic conditions and potential monetary policy shifts.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the difference between long-term and short-term government bond yields, which economists use to assess market expectations and potential economic turning points. A negative spread (known as an inverted yield curve) is often interpreted as a potential signal of an impending economic recession.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the 3-month Treasury constant maturity rate from the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate, typically reported as a percentage.
Historical Context
Central banks and financial analysts use this spread as a critical tool for understanding market sentiment, potential economic downturns, and monetary policy implications.
Key Facts
- An inverted yield curve has historically preceded most U.S. recessions
- The spread reflects market expectations about future economic conditions
- Negative values suggest potential economic contraction
FAQs
Q: What does a negative T10Y3M spread mean?
A: A negative spread indicates that short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, which is often interpreted as a potential recession signal.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The T10Y3M is typically updated daily by the Federal Reserve, reflecting current market conditions and Treasury rates.
Q: Why do investors watch this indicator?
A: Investors use this spread to gauge market sentiment, potential economic turning points, and to inform investment strategies.
Q: Is the T10Y3M a definitive recession predictor?
A: While historically significant, the indicator is not a guaranteed predictor and should be considered alongside other economic metrics.
Q: How can policymakers use this information?
A: Central banks and policymakers use this spread to assess economic conditions and potentially adjust monetary policy strategies.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y3M], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025