10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Monthly
T10Y2YM • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
0.51
Year-over-Year Change
-304.00%
Date Range
6/1/1976 - 7/1/2025
Summary
The T10Y2YM represents the monthly spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, which is a critical indicator of economic expectations and potential recession risk. This metric provides insights into market sentiment and potential future economic conditions by reflecting investor perceptions of long-term versus short-term economic prospects.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The Treasury yield spread is a key financial indicator that economists use to assess economic health and potential recessionary signals. When the spread narrows or inverts, it often suggests market expectations of economic slowdown or potential recession in the near future.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the 2-year Treasury yield from the 10-year Treasury yield on a monthly basis, using primary market data from U.S. Treasury securities.
Historical Context
Policymakers, central bankers, and financial analysts closely monitor this spread as a predictive tool for economic cycles and potential monetary policy adjustments.
Key Facts
- A negative spread can signal potential economic recession
- Widely used by economists as a leading economic indicator
- Reflects market expectations about future economic conditions
FAQs
Q: What does a negative yield spread mean?
A: A negative yield spread indicates that short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term yields, which is often interpreted as a potential recession signal.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The T10Y2YM is typically updated monthly, providing a consistent snapshot of Treasury yield dynamics.
Q: Why do investors care about the yield spread?
A: Investors use the yield spread to assess economic risks, potential market movements, and make informed investment decisions.
Q: How accurate is the yield spread in predicting recessions?
A: While historically reliable, the yield spread is not a perfect predictor and should be considered alongside other economic indicators.
Q: Can the yield spread change quickly?
A: Yes, the yield spread can change rapidly based on market conditions, economic news, and monetary policy expectations.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Monthly [T10Y2YM], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025