Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 4 Years Hence
THREEFFTP4 • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
0.19
Year-over-Year Change
-34.36%
Date Range
10/4/2021 - 8/1/2025
Summary
The Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 4 Years Hence measures the risk compensation demanded by investors for holding long-term Treasuries. It is a key indicator of market expectations and uncertainty.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This forward term premium reflects the extra yield investors require to hold 4-year Treasury securities rather than a series of 1-year Treasuries. It provides insights into the relative demand for long-term fixed-income assets.
Methodology
The data is calculated by the Federal Reserve based on Treasury yield curve dynamics.
Historical Context
Policymakers and analysts use this metric to gauge market sentiment and inflation expectations.
Key Facts
- The term premium averaged 0.7% from 1961-2022.
- It reached a high of 3.4% in October 2018.
- The premium turned negative during the 2008 financial crisis.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 4 Years Hence measures the extra yield compensation investors demand for holding long-term Treasury securities rather than shorter-term ones.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This metric provides insights into market expectations of future interest rates, inflation, and risk premiums, which are crucial for policymakers and investors.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The Federal Reserve calculates this term premium based on the dynamics of the Treasury yield curve.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Policymakers and analysts use this metric to gauge market sentiment, assess inflation expectations, and inform monetary policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve, but there may be lags or revisions due to the complex calculations involved.
Similar THREEFFTP Trends
Fitted Yield on a 5 Year Zero Coupon Bond
THREEFY5
Term Premium on a 2 Year Zero Coupon Bond
THREEFYTP2
Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence
THREEFF10
Term Premium on a 8 Year Zero Coupon Bond
THREEFYTP8
Fitted Yield on a 3 Year Zero Coupon Bond
THREEFY3
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 8 Years Hence
THREEFFTP8
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 4 Years Hence (THREEFFTP4), retrieved from FRED.