Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence
This dataset tracks fitted instantaneous forward rate 10 years hence over time.
Latest Value
5.31
Year-over-Year Change
-4.42%
Date Range
1/2/1990 - 8/1/2025
Summary
The Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence measures long-term interest rate expectations and is a key economic indicator used by policymakers and analysts to gauge the future path of monetary policy.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This trend represents the implied forward interest rate 10 years in the future, calculated from the yield curve on U.S. Treasury securities. It provides insights into market expectations of long-term interest rates and inflation over the next decade.
Methodology
The data is calculated by the Federal Reserve using a fitted yield curve model.
Historical Context
This forward rate is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, investors, and economists as a signal of inflation and monetary policy expectations.
Key Facts
- The forward rate has averaged 2.3% over the past 20 years.
- The rate reached a high of 4.7% in 2007 before the Great Recession.
- The rate fell to 0.7% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence measures the expected level of long-term interest rates in 10 years based on the current yield curve.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This forward rate is a key indicator of long-term inflation and monetary policy expectations, providing insights into the future path of interest rates.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The data is calculated by the Federal Reserve using a fitted yield curve model based on U.S. Treasury securities.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The forward rate is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, investors, and economists as a signal of long-term interest rate and inflation expectations, which informs monetary policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The data is published monthly with no significant update delays. However, the model-based nature of the calculation may introduce some limitations compared to directly observed market rates.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence (THREEFF10), retrieved from FRED.