Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 2 Years Hence
This dataset tracks instantaneous forward term premium 2 years hence over time.
Latest Value
0.04
Year-over-Year Change
-67.62%
Date Range
1/2/1990 - 8/1/2025
Summary
The Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 2 Years Hence measures the compensation demanded by investors to hold long-term bonds relative to short-term bonds. This metric provides insight into market expectations and risk perceptions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the difference between the instantaneous forward rate 2 years in the future and the expected short-term interest rate 2 years hence. It reflects the premium investors require to hold longer-term bonds as opposed to rolling over shorter-term bonds.
Methodology
The data is calculated by the Federal Reserve using Treasury yield curve information.
Historical Context
Policymakers and analysts use this metric to gauge market sentiment and expectations about the future path of interest rates.
Key Facts
- The term premium has been persistently low since the Great Recession.
- Negative term premiums indicate a greater demand for long-term bonds.
- The term premium is an important input for the yield curve and forward guidance.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 2 Years Hence measures the compensation investors demand to hold long-term bonds instead of repeatedly rolling over short-term bonds.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This metric provides insight into market expectations and risk perceptions, which is crucial information for policymakers and investors.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The Federal Reserve calculates this indicator using information from the Treasury yield curve.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Policymakers and analysts use this metric to gauge market sentiment and expectations about the future path of interest rates, which informs monetary policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The data is published with a short lag and may be subject to revisions by the Federal Reserve.
Related News
Yield curve steepening benefits US value and small-cap stocks
The Steepening Yield Curve in Today's Economy The recent rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield sparks renewed interest in its impact on the financial markets. A steepening yield curve, where the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates widens, is grabbing investors' attention. While it usually suggests a positive outlook for economic growth, the implications for different segments of the stock market, such as value and small-cap stocks, can be significant. This shift in the yi
U.S. mortgage rates decline aligns with housing price cuts
U.S. Real Estate: Mortgage Rates Plummet Mortgage rates in the U.S. have experienced a notable drop, marking some of the most significant cuts in recent years. This shift comes at a time when the housing market is adjusting with substantial price reductions, offering potential homebuyers opportunities. The interconnectedness of mortgage rates with the broader economic trends cannot be understated. Lower interest rates often mean cheaper loans, potentially sparking more activity in the real esta
U.S. Stock Futures Stagnant Despite Positive Jobless Claims and GDP
Why US Stock Futures Remain Stagnant Despite Positive Economic Indicators The current investment landscape is puzzling for many as US stock futures struggle to show a definite trend despite favorable economic signals. These signals, such as jobless claims and Q2 GDP figures, suggest a healthy economy. Given the roles of the stock market and the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate hikes, it is surprising to witness this stagnation. Inflation trends and the Fed's signals about future policies pla
U.S. Home Sales Decline In August Due To High Prices
August 2023 U.S. Home Sales Decline Amid Rising Mortgage Rates and High Prices In August 2023, U.S. home sales experienced a notable decline, highlighting a distressing trend in the housing market. Homeownership is more costly these days. High home prices and soaring 30 year mortgage rates, combined with limited housing inventory, pose significant challenges for potential buyers and cast a shadow on economic recovery efforts. Many potential homebuyers find themselves increasingly priced out of
U.S. jobless claims decline to lowest level since mid-July
U.S. Jobless Claims Drop: A Positive Sign for Economic Growth The U.S. economy is signaling a positive turn as the initial jobless claims have dropped to their lowest level since mid-July, suggesting a more resilient labor market. This decline in jobless claims is not just a number; it reflects crucial dynamics in the U.S. economy and employment landscape. As people file fewer claims for unemployment benefits, it suggests a strengthening employment market and a recovering economy. Also, the cur
U.S. Trade Deficit Decreases As Businesses Anticipate Tariff Hikes
U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Two-Year Low Amid Anticipated Tariff Hikes The recent announcement that the U.S. trade deficit has reached a two-year low signals significant developments for the national economy. This change may, in part, be influenced by the anticipation of tariff hikes, which are affecting trade patterns. As this event unfolds, it has implications for the U.S. GDP, underscoring the importance of reducing the trade deficit. Trade tensions have long shaped the global economic landsc
Similar THREEFFTP Trends
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 1 Year Hence
THREEFFTP1
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence
THREEFFTP10
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 3 Years Hence
THREEFFTP3
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 4 Years Hence
THREEFFTP4
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 5 Years Hence
THREEFFTP5
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 6 Years Hence
THREEFFTP6
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 2 Years Hence (THREEFFTP2), retrieved from FRED.