10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T10YFF • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
-0.11
Year-over-Year Change
-200.00%
Date Range
10/6/2021 - 8/5/2025
Summary
The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate measures the spread between long-term government bond yields and short-term interest rates. This metric serves as a critical indicator of economic expectations and potential recessionary signals.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the Federal Funds Rate, which economists use to assess market sentiment and potential economic turning points. The spread provides insights into market expectations about future economic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the current Federal Funds Rate from the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity rate, typically reported on a daily basis by the Federal Reserve.
Historical Context
Policymakers and investors closely monitor this spread as a predictive tool for economic recessions and potential shifts in monetary policy.
Key Facts
- A negative spread often signals potential economic recession
- The metric reflects market expectations about future economic conditions
- Investors use this spread to assess investment and economic strategies
FAQs
Q: What does a negative spread indicate?
A: A negative spread suggests potential economic slowdown or impending recession, as short-term rates become higher than long-term rates.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The data is typically updated daily by the Federal Reserve, providing real-time insights into market conditions.
Q: Why do investors care about this spread?
A: The spread helps investors understand market sentiment, potential economic shifts, and make informed investment decisions.
Q: How accurate is this indicator for predicting recessions?
A: While historically reliable, the spread is not a guaranteed predictor and should be considered alongside other economic indicators.
Q: Can the spread change quickly?
A: Yes, the spread can change rapidly based on economic conditions, monetary policy, and market expectations.
Related News
Gen Z In the U.S. Shifts From Spending To Saving Habits
How Gen Z's Shift from Spending to Saving is Impacting the US Economy Recent trends indicate a significant shift in the spending habits of Gen Z, w...
U.S. Treasury Yields Decline After Inflation Data Meet Expectations
US Treasury Yields Drop as Inflation Data Meets Expectations US Treasury yields have seen a noticeable decline recently, as the latest inflation da...
U.S. Treasury Yields Increase Amid Strong Economic Growth and Inflation Concerns
Treasury Yields Surge Amid Economic Growth and Inflation Concerns Treasury yields are surging as investors closely monitor the evolving U.S. econom...
U.S. Home Sales Decline In August Due To High Prices
August 2023 U.S. Home Sales Decline Amid Rising Mortgage Rates and High Prices In August 2023, U.S. home sales experienced a notable decline, highl...
US Treasury Yields Increase Before Key Economic Data Release
How Treasury Yields Signal Market Expectations Ahead of Crucial Economic Data Release Treasury yields, often referred to as a barometer for the U.S...
U.S. Stock Market Rises Amid PCE Inflation Report Analysis
U.S. Stock Market Climbs Amidst Insights from PCE Inflation Report Investors in the U.S. stock market are focusing on the most recent PCE Inflation...
Related Trends
5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate
T5YFF
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
T10Y2Y
20-year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T20YIEM
6-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate
TB6SMFFM
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
AAA10Y
7-year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T7YIEM
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate [T10YFF], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025