10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
Monthly
T10Y3MM • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
-0.02
Year-over-Year Change
-98.31%
Date Range
1/1/1982 - 7/1/2025
Summary
The T10Y3MM represents the monthly 10-Year Treasury Yield minus the 3-Month Treasury Bill rate, a critical indicator of economic expectations and potential recession signals. This spread provides insights into market sentiment about future economic conditions and potential monetary policy shifts.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
Economists closely monitor this yield curve spread as a predictive tool for economic recessions and financial market conditions. A narrowing or inverted spread often suggests market expectations of economic slowdown or potential monetary policy challenges.
Methodology
The data is calculated by subtracting the 3-Month Treasury Bill rate from the 10-Year Treasury Yield on a monthly basis, using primary market data from U.S. Treasury securities.
Historical Context
Financial analysts and policymakers use this metric to assess economic health, potential recessionary risks, and inform monetary policy decisions.
Key Facts
- A negative spread can indicate increased recession probability
- The metric reflects market expectations about future economic conditions
- Frequently used by Federal Reserve in economic assessments
FAQs
Q: What does a negative T10Y3MM spread mean?
A: A negative spread suggests market expectations of economic contraction and potential upcoming recession. It indicates investors anticipate lower future economic growth.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The T10Y3MM is typically updated monthly, providing a current snapshot of Treasury yield relationships. The data is available through the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) platform.
Q: Why do economists care about this yield spread?
A: The spread provides insights into market sentiment, potential economic turning points, and expectations about future monetary policy. It's a leading indicator of economic health.
Q: How accurate is this as a recession predictor?
A: While historically reliable, the yield curve is not a perfect predictor. It has successfully signaled most post-World War II recessions, but timing and exact prediction remain complex.
Q: Can individual investors use this data?
A: Investors can use this trend as part of broader economic analysis, but should not rely solely on the yield spread for investment decisions. It's best used in conjunction with other economic indicators.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Monthly [T10Y3MM], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025