Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator
This dataset tracks dates of u.s. recessions as inferred by gdp-based recession indicator over time.
Latest Value
0.00
Year-over-Year Change
N/A%
Date Range
10/1/1967 - 1/1/2025
Summary
This economic indicator identifies the dates of U.S. recessions based on fluctuations in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is a crucial data point for understanding the business cycle and informing economic policymaking.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The GDP-based recession indicator tracks periods of economic decline as signaled by consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This timely metric helps economists and policymakers monitor the health of the U.S. economy and determine appropriate policy responses.
Methodology
The indicator is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Historical Context
Recession dates identified by this indicator are used to assess the state of the economy and inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Key Facts
- The indicator has identified 8 recessions in the U.S. since 1950.
- The longest recession was from December 2007 to June 2009.
- Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: This indicator identifies the start and end dates of U.S. recessions based on declines in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: Recession dates are a critical input for understanding the business cycle and informing economic policymaking.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The indicator is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Recession dates identified by this indicator are used by policymakers and analysts to assess the state of the economy and inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The indicator is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, but may be subject to revisions as additional GDP data becomes available.
Related News
U.S. economy weakening as leading indicators suggest decline
Signs of Slowdown: Analyzing Leading Indicators of U.S. Economic Activity The U.S. economy stands at a pivotal juncture, and the signs of ebbing vitality warrant attention. Among the critical aspects of economic foresight are leading indicators, which illuminate potential patterns before the broader economy reflects the same. Understanding these indicators is vital for predicting economic downturns. We'll explore how they impact GDP growth and analyze the signals that might foretell a recession
U.S. Stock Futures Stagnant Despite Positive Jobless Claims and GDP
Why US Stock Futures Remain Stagnant Despite Positive Economic Indicators The current investment landscape is puzzling for many as US stock futures struggle to show a definite trend despite favorable economic signals. These signals, such as jobless claims and Q2 GDP figures, suggest a healthy economy. Given the roles of the stock market and the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate hikes, it is surprising to witness this stagnation. Inflation trends and the Fed's signals about future policies pla
U.S. Home Sales Decline In August Due To High Prices
August 2023 U.S. Home Sales Decline Amid Rising Mortgage Rates and High Prices In August 2023, U.S. home sales experienced a notable decline, highlighting a distressing trend in the housing market. Homeownership is more costly these days. High home prices and soaring 30 year mortgage rates, combined with limited housing inventory, pose significant challenges for potential buyers and cast a shadow on economic recovery efforts. Many potential homebuyers find themselves increasingly priced out of
U.S. jobless claims decline to lowest level since mid-July
U.S. Jobless Claims Drop: A Positive Sign for Economic Growth The U.S. economy is signaling a positive turn as the initial jobless claims have dropped to their lowest level since mid-July, suggesting a more resilient labor market. This decline in jobless claims is not just a number; it reflects crucial dynamics in the U.S. economy and employment landscape. As people file fewer claims for unemployment benefits, it suggests a strengthening employment market and a recovering economy. Also, the cur
U.S. Trade Deficit Decreases As Businesses Anticipate Tariff Hikes
U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Two-Year Low Amid Anticipated Tariff Hikes The recent announcement that the U.S. trade deficit has reached a two-year low signals significant developments for the national economy. This change may, in part, be influenced by the anticipation of tariff hikes, which are affecting trade patterns. As this event unfolds, it has implications for the U.S. GDP, underscoring the importance of reducing the trade deficit. Trade tensions have long shaped the global economic landsc
U.S. Treasury Yields Increase Amid Strong Economic Growth and Inflation Concerns
Treasury Yields Surge Amid Economic Growth and Inflation Concerns Treasury yields are surging as investors closely monitor the evolving U.S. economic landscape. Recent data 10-year Treasury yield. With economic growth on one side and inflation data on the other, it's essential to unpack these complex dynamics. By analyzing these factors, we gain insights into the Federal Reserve's role in shaping monetary policy and the consequential market implications. The Federal Reserve's policies, market v
Related Trends
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
CPIAUCNS
Capacity Utilization: Total Index
TCU
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks
TOTCI
Share of Foreign Born in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood A
RLMSHFBHOLCNA
Home Ownership Rate in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood C
RLMSHHORHOLCNC
Share of Foreign Born in Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) Neighborhood C
RLMSHFBHOLCNC
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR), retrieved from FRED.