Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator
JHDUSRGDPBR • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
0.00
Year-over-Year Change
N/A%
Date Range
10/1/1967 - 1/1/2025
Summary
This economic indicator identifies the dates of U.S. recessions based on fluctuations in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is a crucial data point for understanding the business cycle and informing economic policymaking.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The GDP-based recession indicator tracks periods of economic decline as signaled by consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This timely metric helps economists and policymakers monitor the health of the U.S. economy and determine appropriate policy responses.
Methodology
The indicator is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Historical Context
Recession dates identified by this indicator are used to assess the state of the economy and inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Key Facts
- The indicator has identified 8 recessions in the U.S. since 1950.
- The longest recession was from December 2007 to June 2009.
- Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: This indicator identifies the start and end dates of U.S. recessions based on declines in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: Recession dates are a critical input for understanding the business cycle and informing economic policymaking.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The indicator is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: Recession dates identified by this indicator are used by policymakers and analysts to assess the state of the economy and inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The indicator is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, but may be subject to revisions as additional GDP data becomes available.
Related Trends
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USRECDP
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough
USRECDM
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough
USREC
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
JHGDPBRINDX
Coincident Economic Activity Index for the United States
USPHCI
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR), retrieved from FRED.