Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low
FEDTARCTLLR • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
2.60
Year-over-Year Change
13.04%
Date Range
6/17/2015 - 6/18/2025
Summary
This economic indicator represents the lower bound of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-term projection for the federal funds rate. It provides insight into the potential minimum interest rate trajectory expected by Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming years.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The low central tendency of the Fed Funds Rate projection reflects the most conservative monetary policy outlook among FOMC members. Economists use this metric to understand potential future monetary policy constraints and minimum interest rate expectations.
Methodology
Data is collected through quarterly surveys of FOMC members, who provide confidential projections of potential future federal funds rate scenarios.
Historical Context
This projection is critical for financial markets, helping investors and analysts anticipate potential lower limits of monetary policy adjustments.
Key Facts
- Represents the lowest expected federal funds rate among FOMC members
- Updated quarterly as part of the Summary of Economic Projections
- Provides insight into potential future monetary policy constraints
FAQs
Q: What does the low central tendency of the Fed Funds Rate indicate?
A: It represents the most conservative estimate of potential future interest rates among Federal Reserve policymakers, suggesting a potentially more accommodative monetary policy scenario.
Q: How often is this projection updated?
A: The projection is typically updated quarterly during the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections.
Q: Why is this projection important for investors?
A: It helps investors understand potential lower bounds of future interest rates, which can impact investment strategies and economic expectations.
Q: How does this differ from the central tendency or high projection?
A: The low projection represents the most conservative interest rate outlook, compared to the central and high projections which show more varied potential scenarios.
Q: What limitations exist in this projection?
A: The projection is based on individual FOMC member expectations and can change based on evolving economic conditions, making it a forward-looking estimate rather than a definitive prediction.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low [FEDTARCTLLR], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025