FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low
FEDTARCTL • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
2.90
Year-over-Year Change
-25.64%
Date Range
1/1/2025 - 1/1/2027
Summary
The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low represents the lowest projected federal funds rate target range from Federal Reserve officials. This metric provides critical insight into potential future monetary policy and economic expectations at the lower end of the projection spectrum.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator reflects the Federal Open Market Committee's most conservative interest rate outlook for the near-term future. Economists and market participants closely analyze this projection to understand potential monetary policy constraints and economic growth expectations.
Methodology
The data is collected through confidential surveys and projections made by FOMC members during scheduled economic outlook meetings.
Historical Context
This trend is used by policymakers, investors, and economic analysts to gauge potential lower bounds of monetary policy and anticipate potential economic scenarios.
Key Facts
- Represents the lowest potential federal funds rate target
- Updated quarterly by FOMC members
- Provides insight into potential economic constraints
FAQs
Q: What does the low central tendency of the Fed Funds Rate indicate?
A: It represents the most conservative interest rate projection by FOMC members, suggesting potential economic constraints or cautious monetary policy expectations.
Q: How often is this projection updated?
A: The projection is typically updated quarterly during FOMC economic outlook meetings.
Q: Why do investors care about this metric?
A: It provides crucial insights into potential future monetary policy direction and economic growth expectations.
Q: How does this differ from the high central tendency?
A: The low central tendency represents the most conservative rate projections, while the high central tendency reflects more optimistic economic scenarios.
Q: What limitations exist in these projections?
A: Projections are based on current economic conditions and can change rapidly with new economic data or unexpected global events.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low [FEDTARCTL], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 8/1/2025