Quarterly
This dataset tracks quarterly over time.
Latest Value
0.00
Year-over-Year Change
N/A%
Date Range
10/1/1854 - 4/1/2025
Summary
The Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator tracks the state of the U.S. economy, providing a timely signal of recessions and expansions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator is a composite index that combines various economic indicators to assess the overall health of the U.S. economy on a quarterly basis. It is a valuable tool for policymakers and analysts in identifying turning points in the business cycle.
Methodology
The data is calculated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) using a range of economic variables.
Historical Context
The Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and other government agencies to inform economic policy decisions.
Key Facts
- The indicator ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 1 signaling a higher probability of recession.
- The NBER uses the Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator, along with other data, to officially declare the start and end of U.S. recessions.
- The indicator has accurately signaled the onset of the last seven U.S. recessions.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator measures the probability of the U.S. economy being in a recession during a given quarter.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: This indicator is a valuable tool for policymakers, economists, and investors in assessing the overall health of the U.S. economy and identifying turning points in the business cycle.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The data is calculated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) using a range of economic variables.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and other government agencies to inform economic policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The indicator is released on a quarterly basis, with a potential delay of several weeks after the end of the quarter.
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Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Quarterly U.S. Recession Indicator (USRECQ), retrieved from FRED.